CERA Week is a usually superb bellwether of energy sector moods, and this year was no exception.
Overall I found the tone last week to be pragmatic, occasionally even downbeat.
Amin Nasser of Saudi Aramco captured the general mood in his comments (https://lnkd.in/gMSQViKF), noting that consumers “want energy that helps protect the planet and their pocket books, with minimal disruption to supplies and their daily lives”.
His full comments are worth reading, and don’t mince words on critical points I agree with such as:
😡 Tribalism and hyperbole are deeply counterproductive to addressing our collective climate challenge
📈 Consumers in lower and middle income countries (who use far less resources than those in the wealthier world today) will increasingly drive the climate agenda
🏔 The hashtag#energytransition is not on track
The final point is a serious concern, because out in the real world the clock is ticking.
Just prior to CERA I had an update from the Berkeley Earth team, and though I was aware of recent increases in ocean temperature, it was still shocking to see record daily temperatures now observed for over a year.
But unfortunately the conversations and presentations at CERA highlighted how difficult it will be to pull off the badly needed shift away from fossil fuels, especially natural gas.
For example, although ⚡ electrification is a primary pathway to decarbonize a range of consumer and industrial demand, there is simply not enough power, transmission capacity, and even just grid hardware to go around. Particularly as the power demands of data centers grow and tech companies fill up grid connection queues, planners and policymakers will need to take extra care to ensure decarbonization projects aren’t pushed back in the line.
So in the end I left Houston exhausted and concerned, but still optimistic.
To quote Nasser one final time “the world has been trying to transition in fog, without a compass”.
This compass is precisely what we are building at Othersphere, helping those scaling sustainable infrastructure to build better projects, faster. The energy transition is a global challenge that will be solved at the local level—step-by-step, project-by-project.
CERA was full of smart people working together to make this happen.
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Finding ideal sites for infrastructure isn’t about map layers 🗺 — it’s about actionable answers 💡
At Othersphere we are constantly working to make it easier for our users to site, design, and vet infrastructure assets. For example, we recently integrated our Global Land Cost Model 🌍 , which estimates land values globally. This 5-tier ensemble model is trained on terabytes of data, considering factors such as infrastructure, land use, topography, population density, and GDP.
Included within our Explorer tool, this new data helps users more quickly assess one of the many (many) considerations that go into infrastructure developments. In this case, land cost can have a significant impact on project economics, especially for assets with large physical footprints and more modest hardware or operating costs.
Curious about the key factors influencing the results? The example SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) graph provides a breakdown of the six most impactful drivers for a rural landscape, highlighting GDP, population density, and water stress as important drivers of land value.
We recently integrated our Global Land Cost Model, which estimates land values globally and adds this new level of depth into results in Othersphere Explorer.
Equipment sizing and operating strategy LCOH optimizations for hydrogen electrolysis plants are cumbersome and time-consuming. It can take days to weeks to get the data, with each optimization run often taking hours. This limits analytical efforts to a handful of potential sites, leaving many opportunities unexplored.
The result — sub-optimal capital allocation and higher risks, with countless missed opportunities.The difference between initial cost calculations versus hourly optimizations can be dramatic, and highlights location as a critical element of project success.
Othersphere has revolutionized this process by combining the power of our underlying spatial economics platform with neural networks for dimensionality reduction and surrogate modeling.
Our global search engine now recommends pre-optimized projects in seconds, having already run an hourly optimization considering:
1) Hourly day-ahead wholesale power market pricing
2) Grid upgrade CAPEX (developed with a global leader in grid transmission engineering and equipment)
3) Grid fees associated with transmission connections
4) Variable stack efficiency by load, incorporating operational ranges
5) System economies of scale, as well as commercial and technical nuances between PEM and alkaline plants
6) Hourly carbon intensity data
7) Demand profiles and cost of storage
8) Co-located renewables CAPEX
9) High-spatial resolution hourly solar and wind capacity factor data
All of this is delivered through the Othersphere Explorer tool, which provides a novel, bottom-up view of potential hydrogen projects, evaluating key factors such as production costs, emissions, available offtakers, and fit with local surroundings.
Introducing the world’s first global optimizer for hydrogen projects
Please reach out if you would like to learn more about Othersphere, our products, and opportunities to partner in accelerating global industrial decarbonization.
